Polls show McCain / Palin with lead
Written by Van Santos on September 8th, 2008A pollster can structure a question in order to obtain the answer they, or the person who hired them, are looking for. When a firm such as Zogby or Gallup conducts presidential polling; however, the question usually is usually not leading to a specific answer and unbiased. That said, let’s look at the current polling information.
Let me be very blunt about polling and surveys before I continue on. Penn and Teller did an outstanding job showing how polling can often be just pure Bullsh*t. A pollster can structure a question in order to obtain the answer they, or the person who hired them, are looking for. When a firm such as Zogby or Gallup conducts presidential polling; however, the question usually is usually not leading to a specific answer and unbiased. That said, let’s look at the current polling information.
USAToday: McCain 50% / Obama 46%
Gallup: McCain 49% / Obama 44%
Zogby: McCain 49.7% / Obama 45.9%
Realclearpolitics Avergage: McCain 48.3% / Obama 45.4%
A number of things are, most likely, reflective in this data. The Obama DNC bounce has faded back to previous level, the RNC convention gave McCain his post election bounce, and Sarah Palin has taken over the national spotlight. There are a number undercurrents that could also be included, but that would be pure speculation.
Both campaigns need to face the reality that they are running into the home stretch of the election. With some 50 odd days left the polls will continue to swing unless one of the campaigns makes a huge error. If an egregious, publicly embarrassing event is committed by either candidate you can bet the polls will swing away from them and stay away, thus causing them a loss.
Much like the Sarah Palin speech, Republicans need to keep their focus. Yes, it’s nice to be “up” in the polls but with 57 days left it is meaningless. Do NOT become overconfident.
Other Reactions:
Hot Air - Gallup: McCain 48, Obama 45 — outside the margin of error
Hennessy’s View - McCain Lead Outside Margin of Error
AlphaPatriot - Dems are the New “Status Quo”
Guntotingliberal - John McCain Flip-Flops Again, This Time By Enjoying The Sarah Palin “Barracuda Bump”
internet scofflaw - McCain Leads
Rightvoices.com - MCCAIN TAKES 10-POINT LEAD OVER OBAMA IN LIKELY VOTERS…Good News: There Is A Convention Bounce Gallup Has McCain Up 48% to 45% Over Obama
Blue Crab Boulevard - Tea Leaves and Caution
Scared Monkeys - Panic time for Obama
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